On May 5, the Syrian Arab
News Agency reported the Israeli air force had carried out missile attacks
against facilities in Syria. The Israeli attacks represent a continuation of
Israel's policy to prevent certain kinds of weapons from falling into the hands
of Hezbollah or jihadists. With the al Assad regime weakened by the ongoing
civil war in Syria, Israel will continue to make limited strikes if it feels
its security is being threatened. Yesterday's strikes are the third time Israel
has reportedly struck targets inside Syria and Lebanon this year. On Jan. 30,
Israel reportedly bombed a weapons convoy from Syria to Lebanon that was
transporting surface-to-air weapons systems. And late last Thursday or Friday
Israel attacked a weapons facility inside Syria that reportedly housed
surface-to-surface missiles known as Fateh-110s.The Syrian Observatory for
Human Rights has reported that 42 Syrian soldiers were killed in the attack,
and statements made by Syrian officials afterwards equated Israeli action to a
declaration of war. The exact target of yesterday's strikes is still unclear,
but it shows that Israel will not sit idly by if Syria continues to allow
advanced weapons to be transferred to Hezbollah.Whereas U.S. President Barack
Obama has said the use of chemical weapons constitutes a redline for the United
States, Israel has maintained its own threshold for intervention in Syria. Like
the U.S., Israel is also wary of the potential for chemical weapons being
transferred to potential enemies. Anti-aircraft missiles that could challenge
Israeli superiority in the air in Lebanon also threaten Israel and were the
alleged target of the Jan. 30 strike. And missiles like the Fateh-110s targeted
last week are dangerous because of their relative accuracy and convenience:
They would allow Hezbollah or other jihadists to launch attacks at specific
targets inside Israel, and they can be launched quickly, from smaller vehicles
more difficult for Israel to target. There have also been reports that Israel
is wary of advanced anti-ship missiles, which could be used against Israeli
ships or offshore Israeli energy infrastructure.The recent Israeli airstrikes
in Syria should not be understood as Israel taking a side in Syria's civil war.
For Israel, there is no positive outcome. The al Assad regime, while a
predictable enemy, has a close relationship with Iran and allowed Syria to
become a conduit for Iran to supply Hezbollah. But Syria's rebels, dominated by
multiple radical Islamist militias, represent a strategic threat to Israel in
their own right, and it is doubtful that Israel would intervene to support one
side over the other.Israel has shown in the past that it will undertake limited
strikes on strategic targets if it feels threatened. Last October, Israel
reportedly bombed a weapons facility in Sudan that was reportedly helping
supply Hamas in Gaza with the longer-range Fajr-5 rockets that eventually
provoked the Israeli operation Pillar of Cloud last November. And in 2007
Israel is believed to have attacked a Syrian nuclear reactor.While Syrian
officials have publicly responded aggressively -- the Deputy Foreign Minister
said the Israeli attacks amounted to a declaration of war -- neither the al
Assad regime nor Hezbollah can afford a full-scale conflict with Israel while fighting
Syrian rebel forces. More important to watch will be whether Iran, Hezbollah
and the al Assad regime can use Israeli aggression as a way to galvanize Shia
support in the region.In the meantime, Syria's sectarian war continues to spill
over its borders. Israel will continue to keep a close eye on Lebanon and Syria
and will continue to conduct limited strikes against select targets if it deems
them to be a significant threat."
Israeli Strikes Continue in Syria is republished with permission of Stratfor."
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Strikes Continue in Syria | Stratfor
